@edwardlucas — from a new paper

8 PHASES OF WARFARE

1 non-military asymmetric warfare (info, psycho, ideological, diplo, economic)

2 special operations to mislead pol & mil leadership via diplomatic, media, channels, leaks, false data & orders

3 intimidation, deceiving, and bribing govt and military officers, to make them abandon duties etc

4 destabilizing propaganda to increase public discontent, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.

5 establishment of no-fly zones & blockades, extensive use of private military in close cooperation with armed opposition units.

6 military action, preceded by special ops, cyber, sabotage, espionage, subversion

7 info ops, electronic warfare, air harrassment, high precision weapons, EMP,

8 mopping up, with artillery, airdrops etc

10 PRINCIPLES

1 direct influence matters more than direct destruction

2 instead of direct annihilation of opponent, promote his inner decay

3 war using culture matters more than weapons & technology

4 special forces & commercial irregular forces instead of conventional military

5 from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of perceptions;

6 from direct clash to contactless war;

7 from a superficial and compartmentalised war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal side and base;

8 from war in the physical environment to war in human consciousness and cyberspace

9 from symmetric to assymetric warfare, combining political, economic, info, techno & ecological campaigns

10 From war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in national life.

I don’t see how they could possibly win. Culture is on the side of Ukraine.