Collection of Surveys About Sentiment in E. Ukraine

http://uatoday.tv/society/over-1-in-2-ukrainians-back-nato-membership-400497.html
Dec 2014
– “Over 50 per cent of Ukrainians back joining the NATO military alliance. That’s according to polling from research group IFAK, who found that just 22 per cent oppose.”
– “That poll indicated an increase in support for NATO, up from 34 per cent in May, and from just 13 per cent in 2012.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/06/support-for-separatism-in-southern-and-eastern-ukraine-is-lower-than-you-think/
University of Oxford Study in Eastern and Southern Ukraine (published Feb, 2015):
– “fewer than 5 percent of respondents favored moves that would lead to the breakup of the country.”
– “18 percent supported a federal solution to accommodate ethnic differences, but only if it preserved a strong central government.”
– “6 percent and 4 percent of respondents believed that the rebel territories ought to be granted independence or join the Russian Federation.”
– “most respondents preferred the options of using greater military force or conceding more power to the occupied areas in preference to the two occupied territories splitting from Ukraine.”

Early February 2015. Evacuation of civilians from Debaltsev confirmed by OSCE: 600 choose the green corridor to Ukraine, 30 (5%) choose Donetsk, through the opposite green corridor

May 2014, Ukrainian Television
Not sure about the source of this survey, but:
Donetsk: 52.2% pro-Ukrainian, 27.5% pro-Russian
Luhansk: 51.9% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian
Kharkiv: 65.6% pro-Ukrainian
Dnipropetrovsk: 84.1% pro-Ukrainian

March 25-28 Survey by Donetsk-based Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis
Donetsk-based Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis (March 2014 – *before the war)
“46% of respondents believe the locals should take a “neutral, patient position” in case of a Russian invasion. Only one fifth said they would support a Ukrainian effort to resist the Russian forces, according to an advanced copy of the poll results obtained by TIME on Friday. Another fifth said they would welcome the Russian tanks. But perhaps most surprising was the data on how many locals were even paying attention. Nearly a quarter of them did not express “stable or high” interest in what was going on in their city.”

http://romaninukraine.com/survey-15-of-east-south-ukrainians-want-to-unite-w-russia-33-in-donetsk-luhansk/
Ukrainian newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (April, 2015)
More than 3,000 people in eight southern and eastern regions.
– “only 15% of respondents want to unite with Russia.”
– “in Donetsk and Luhansk the figure is less than a third.”
– “Some 77% oppose the armed separatists who have occupied public buildings in the region.”
– “while many southern and eastern Ukrainians may not support the separatists, neither do they support the government. Half of respondents consider the current, internationally recognised authorities to be illegitimate. In Donetsk and Luhansk, that figure rises to 70%.”

http://romaninukraine.com/iri-public-opinion-survey-residents-of-ukraine-march-14-26/
IRI (March 2014)
– Join the EU?
53% for, 28% against
east – 22% for, 55% against
– Russian Speakers under pressure?
85% no, 12% yes
east – 74% no, 17% yes
– Support Russian sending Army to protect Russian-Speakers?
81% no, 13% yes
east – 61% no, 24% yes
ethnic Russian – 43% no, 43% yes (Surprising!)
– Join NATO?
34% for, 44% against
east – 14% for, 67% against
– Crimea should be
71% – autonomous republic or oblast within Ukraine
8% – part of Russia

http://romaninukraine.com/new-iri-ukraine-poll-opposition-to-russian-military-intervention-strong-throughout-the-country-enthusiasm-for-election-is-high/
IRI Poll (April 2014)
This overwhelming majority opposed to Russian intervention extends to every region (97 percent, west; 94 percent, center; 69 percent, east; 75 percent, south), to all age groups (18-29 year olds, 85 percent; 30-49 year olds, 85 percent; 50 and older, 85 percent) and to men and women (men, 84 percent; women, 86 percent). In addition, 68 percent of Russian-speaking citizens oppose military intervention by Moscow.
* Support for invasion dropped from 13% to 9% since last month.
* 64% expect Russia to try to disrupt the elections.

http://romaninukraine.com/september-poll-of-donbas-sentiment-by-the-ilko-kucheriv-democratic-initiatives-foundation-and-the-kyiv-international-institute-of-sociology/
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Septemer 2014)
16% join Russia
26% independence
42% Stay with Ukraine but more autonomy

http://romaninukraine.com/russian-independent-poll-odesa-kharkiv-not-eager-to-join-russia/
Survey of Kharkiv and Odesa by independent Russian journalists. (October 2014)
87% – remain a part of Ukraine
3% – become a part of Russia
2% – become a part of “Novorossiya”

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2501761
Harvard University – Berkman Center for Internet & Society (September 2014)
Study of Social Media Sentiment

http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=236&page=1
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Feb 2014 — *before the war)
Integration with Russia into a single state is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and during recent years this number has decreased from 20% to 9%, but after Maidan – increased by 3%. The main part of supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine. By regions majority of integration with Russia in one state is in Crimea (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv (15%) districts, but even there support to the current status of relations with Russia – as two independent and friendly states – prevails.

http://uatoday.tv/society/new-poll-shows-only-16-of-donbas-residents-want-region-to-leave-ukraine-399984.html
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Dec 2014)
Do Ukrainians want Donbass to remain a part of Ukraine?
– In the Donbas region 72.6% of those who took part in the study support the region staying part of Ukraine.
– Kherson with 93% of the polled in favour and
– Odesa where 88.4% of the surveyed support Donbas remaining part of the eastern European country.
The poll was conducted between the 4 and 19 of December in 179 villages and towns across Ukraine. The report states that 3,035 people took part in the survey.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/08/ukraine-poll-support-neutrality-split-on-war/24620853/
Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, in collaboration with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (March 2015)
US Military Aid: A slight 52% majority of Ukrainians support this move, with three-quarters of respondents supportive in the west, and three-fifths supportive in the north. In the east, 62% opposed U.S. military support, and the south is evenly divided.

The poll also found that Ukrainians were almost evenly divided (48% in favor and 42% against) on the use of force to regain territory lost to the separatists.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/25/what-people-in-southeast-ukraine-really-think-of-novorossiya/
“What is Novorossiya?”
Our comparative project funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation examines post-Maidan attitudes in Ukraine, as well as in Crimea now annexed to Russia, and in the Russian-supported de facto states of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. In December 2014, we organized simultaneous public opinion surveys in these regions and surveyed in 6 of the 8 oblasts of southeast Ukraine (hereafter SE6). We judged it impossible to do reliable survey work in war afflicted Donetsk and Luhansk, instead contracting with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to administer a randomized face-to-face survey to 2003 persons in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. We asked a series of questions about Novorossiya.
what-is-novorossia

6 Comments

  1. Jim

    Roman, I would really like to know what is going on in Ukraine and the surrounding countries. I live in the United States, and I feel that the situation has huge implications for the rest of the world. Is there a simple comprehensive way for you to explain? I consider myself to be intelligent, not only from an educational sense (school) but also from a common sense standpoint and from a basic ideal of a human that is charged with being a “keeper of his brothers well being”. I realize that you are a very busy person and may just not have the time to respond in any way to my request, but I take the opportunity daily to speak to as many people about was is happening worldwide as will take time to listen. Thank You for your time in reading and consideration of this request. Good Luck and Godspeed, Jim Morris.

    Reply
    1. Roman

      Jim, I recommend looking through this blog and my twitter feed as well. Look for other sources too. If there’s specific question you have, please ask.

      Reply
      1. beauregard

        Roman,

        Many do not use twitter feed nor Facebook for many
        reasons. You really need to post short summaries of
        the twitter feeds and Facebook postings and other fast
        and loose internet media.

        Better yet, teach Andrii to do it for you. Try delegating
        some of the volume. It seems to be affecting you
        writing a book…

        Was I misled in thinking the army trains officers to delegate tasks?
        In the Air Force the officers were supervisors on routine stuff.

        Tell Jim that you speak to Western Ukrainians not Eastern Ukrainians.

        Reply
        1. Roman

          Too much work to post all my re-tweets. I’m trying to bring this down to the level of a hobby. I am running a business here you know! Software development. So I’ll only post the most interesting ones. I’m flattered by your interest though. Thanks.

          Reply
  2. Beauregard

    Hobby?

    Sorry but you stuck your foot into big hole.

    You can quit completely or listen to that voice you keep hearing. Just the way it is.

    It goes back to heirs of Pylyp Orlyk. Just the way it is.

    Freedom, leadership just a few things that haunt some.

    Reply
  3. Roman Korol

    Roman, FWIW maybe I can help. I live in Canada and speak/read/write Ukrainian. I plan to be in Lviv in Aug 2015. DM me on twitter at @Roman100
    In case you’re not aware of it, this Ukrainian website (in English) may be useful as a reference: http://xoxol.org

    Reply

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