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Great strategic analysis from the Russian / European perspective. I think the interests of Ukrainians can be squared with these strategic realities if their accept the legacy of their Kozak heritage (national myth), insist that NATO stays the hell out, and keeps Russian corruption in check.

Some refinements:

1. For better or worse, the “One Ukraine” idea seems to have to have emerged very strongly from this. Reports of Lviv secession seem to be wrong. I heard them too, but only from western sources. Nothing here in actual Lviv. I suspect a mistranslation somewhere.

2. This was NEVER a civil war. So comparisons to Yugoslavia are wrong. I didn’t realize this myself until recently. It’s a rebellion of Ukrainians against their gov’t with a mixture of sympathy, apathy and skepticism from the Russian population.

3. Ukraine’s oligarchs do have some ties to the Russian ones, but I sense they fear Russian supervision as much as they fear EU supervision.

4. Yes. As he says, Ukraine (or, more precisely, Kievan-Rus) is the “precedent” for Russian identity. Very astute observation.