Ukraine’s 2019 Elections May Be Completely Unpredictable but Five Things Are Certain

First, no openly pro-Russian candidate can win and this is a major change from the past….

Second, the polls will prove to be very wrong. Ukrainian media publishes almost daily polls, all of which show Tymoshenko leading, a relatively new face in a distant second place, and the president in third….

Third, the majority of presidential candidates are actually campaigning for parliament. Six candidates currently average 10 percent in the presidential polls—Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, former defense minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, Radical Party Leader Oleh Lyashko, and Opposition Bloc leader Yuriy Boyko—but Tymoshenko and Poroshenko are the ones to watch. The other four are campaigning for seats in the parliamentary elections, and standing in the presidential election is merely a method to raise their visibility beforehand….

Fourth, Tymoshenko and Poroshenko will battle again in the runoff….

Fifth, the winner of the presidential election will have momentum going into the parliamentary elections….