He basically argues that Putin loses his main objective to turning Ukraine into another Belarus. His bluff was called, and he’s unlikely to be willing to pay the cost of a full scale invasion.

My 2 cents on Putin’s decision today:

This is a strategic defeat for Putin and a full-scale war is even less likely after today then before.

Let me explain in this thread. The primary goal of Putin has been to subjugate Ukraine and especially its foreign and defense policy 1/

— Igor Schatz (@Copernicus2013) February 22, 2022