I heard one Ukrainian official suggest that Putin’s goal may be the formal annexation of the DNR and LRD.
This seems plausible. It seem unlikely that Putin would be willing to pay the enormous cost, and potential backlash at home, of a war against a Ukraine seemingly prepared to fight . . . of the potential for months- or years- long insurgencies, of the possibility of Russia’s greatest fear being realized — appearing weak on the international stage.
I would think that
1) Formally annexing the DNR and LNR.
and
2) calling President Biden stupid for exaggerating the threat,
may be enough of a political victory for him.
Probably he also hope for some additional leverage over Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
They’re completely unpredictable, of course, but let’s hope this may be a peaceful resolution that leaves Ukrainian sovereignty intact.
Addendum: Currently the DNR and LNR make up only 33% of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Let’s see if Russia declare all of the Donetsk and Luhansk to be Russia, or only that existing 33%.
And if the war begins there, let’s wait and see how far it will spread.