At the end of last week a few significant changes happened, which in one way or another could affect the balance of the confrontation:
1. According to the field reports, the Russian servicemen captured by Ukrainian security services (Evgeniy Tur and Alexander Bondaruk) provided the information about gradual reorganization within the militant groups, and about cleanup operations and “disappearances” of unwanted or uncontrollable individual militants or even their whole groups, conducted by the Russian armed forces, under the protection of the Russian special services. This “restructuring” has as its goal the creation of a unified army of Novorossiya, strictly controlled by the Russian security services. So far these activities have resulted in the worsening of the situation caused by periodic skirmishes among gangs, Cossack groups, DPR, and LPR groups. In such circumstances we foresee increased deployment of the regular Russian military, which will replace the poorly disciplined gangs in the Donbas.
2. Over the past week, the guerrilla movement in the Donbas has become more active. Previously, we saw isolated cases, but now you can see the tendency to centralize the control of the movement and, in some cases, even cooperation between the Ukrainian army and the guerrillas.