Curt on War in Ukraine

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A STATE THAT FIGHTS A GUERILLA MOVEMENT, WILL LOSE

–“Creveld realized that whenever a state takes on a guerrilla movement, it will lose. The reason is that when the strong are seen beating the weak (knocking down doors, roughing up people of interest, and shooting ragtag guerrillas), they are considered to be barbarians. This view, amplified by the media, will eventually eat away at the state’s ability to maintain moral cohesion and drastically damage its global image.”–

Robb, John (2008-04-01). Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization (p. 28). Turner Publishing Company. Kindle Edition.

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—“The global adoption of proxy guerrilla and terrorist conflict led Lind et al. to develop a model for the next generation of interstate warfare. This fourth-generation warfare (4GW) codified the use of guerrilla and terrorist proxies as the primary means of warfare between states, large and small. In Lind et al.’ s view, 4GW was a method of warfare that allowed the weak forces to defeat the strong. Within the structure of a sponsored proxy conflict, 4GW was seen as a way to waste the strength of the strong— to bleed the target state dry morally and economically. The result is an eternal war that typically ends with the target state’s inevitable defeat.”—

Robb, John (2008-04-01). Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization (p. 27). Turner Publishing Company. Kindle Edition.

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THE HIGH VALUE OF ATTACKING SYSTEMS

–“an attack on systems can magnify the effect of a small attack into a major global economic event. … The extreme productivity enabled by systems disruption creates the potential for non-state forces to adopt the strategies of maneuver and attrition in addition to those of almost endless supply of attackers could generate hundreds of millions, potentially billions, in damage. The cumulative effect of these attacks could grind down even the strongest nation-state. “–

–“We are staring at a future where defeat isn’t experienced all at once, but through an inevitable withering away of military, economic, and political power and through wasting conflicts with minor foes.”–

Robb, John (2008-04-01). Brave New War: The Next Stage of Terrorism and the End of Globalization (p. 32). Turner Publishing Company. Kindle Edition.

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Arm the Ukrainians with small arms.
Give them one nuke.
Cut russia out of wire transfer system.
Cut russia out of visa mastercard amex system.
Cut russia out of the internet.
Close all wester airports to Russian airlines, and airlines that are owned by countries that do not also comply.
Ban all Russian goods.
Dump all rubles.
Cancel all debts to russia.
Sieze all russian assets.
Compensate losers with those assets.

There is plenty one can do.

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