Author Archives: RomanInUkraine

Curt on arguing

So here is the process I use to research (attack) opposing positions.

THE SUSTAINED ATTACK
Your opponent will never agree with you. Your objective is to educated him through repetition, and to eliminate his means of obtaining confirmation, signals, and status from his conceptual peers.

Construct a criticism, and a solution. (libertarianism or Russian involvement in Ukraine)

Look for comment streams with elaborate but rhetorically weak arguments. (rothbarianism or russian moral equivalency).

Watch for a few weeks so that you understand the general arguments that they make. (haunt blogs and fb pages)

Create an aggressive, full frontal attack, in order to draw attention and fire. use loaded language, framed language, every thing possible to inflame the audience.

Use their attacks on you as opportunities to repeat the central argument.

Never show anger. Treat them as ‘cute’. Stick to the facts. Repeat the central argument.

They will try to rally. Try to shame. Try to ridicule. Try ad hominems. Try straw men. And every other fallacy.

Answer every single person who responds by showing their fallacy, then close by repeating the central argument. The purpose of responding is to repeat the central argument and show that they are dishonest in debate.

At this point, after two to five days, you have already succeeded in controlling the discourse, and eliminating the sense of comfort, familiarity and safety that they have on the forum, but now, you want to defeat your enemy completely.

So keep up the attack, and make fresh ones, until they bring in their ‘best’, who will undoubtedly have confidence that he can defeat you. This individual will seek status by showing his dominance. If you defeat this individual you defeat the ‘team’.

At this point, the others will largely drop out except for cheers from the peanut gallery. You now have control of the discourse.

Now that you have someone who can actually conduct a debate rather than rally, shame, ridicule, and throw fallacies, agree with his true and empirically stated points, and repeat the central argument.

Keep this up until you exhaust him.

At this point you have killed the venue as a means of self-reinforcing justification, and yo have probably repeated your central argument a hundred times. And it is now part of their conceptual vernacular.

They will eventually try to ban you. At which point if you have conducted yourself with humor, rather than personal attacks, you can argue that they can’t defend their ideas, repeat the central position.

YOU JUST HAVE TO WORK AT IT PATIENTLY.
It’s a yeoman’s labor. But it works. You can accomplish by repetition what you can not accomplish by persuasion.

Yamnaya people: third wave of DNA into Europe

On Wednesday in the journal Nature, two teams of scientists — one based at the University of Copenhagen and one based at Harvard University — presented the largest studies to date of ancient European DNA, extracted from 170 skeletons found in countries from Spain to Russia. Both studies indicate that today’s Europeans descend from three groups who moved into Europe at different stages of history.

First hunter-gatherers 45,000 years ago.
Farmers from near east 8,000 years ago.
nomadic sheepherders from western Russia & Ukraine about 4,500 years ago.

Until about 9,000 years ago, Europe was home to a genetically distinct population of hunter-gatherers, the researchers found. Then, 9,000 to 7,000 years ago, the genetic profiles of the inhabitants in some parts of Europe abruptly changed, acquiring DNA from Near Eastern populations. . . .

From 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, however, hunter-gatherer DNA began turning up in the genes of European farmers. “There’s a breakdown of these cultural barriers, and they mix,” Dr. Reich said.

About 4,500 years ago, the final piece of Europe’s genetic puzzle fell into place. A new infusion of DNA arrived — one that is still very common in living Europeans, especially in central and northern Europe.

The closest match to this new DNA, both teams of scientists found, comes from skeletons found in Yamnaya graves in western Russia and Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/science/dna-deciphers-roots-of-modern-europeans.html?_r=2

Curt on Russia Ridicule of Ukraine

(russian ridicule of ukraine)

What’s your point? That we shouldn’t hire foreigners? We have a government saturated with people paid off by the Kremlin. That’s why we’re engaging in lustration – to purge them and their pervasive corruption. So we are hiring foreigners to help with lustration.

Ukraine has decided it is European. Muscovite Russia has decided it is Mongolian. We all retreat to our roots under pressure. There may be 140M Muscovites, but there are 1B+ westerners, 1B+ Chinese, 1B+ Muslims, and 1B+ Hindus. Russians cannot reform. Russians cannot build a diverse economy. Russia cannot join modernity. We understand the choice. However, we do not want to be prisoners of Russia’s bad decisions.

Russians are foolish. They could have ruled the world. The west wanted them to. Putin was becoming the most influential man in the world. But instead of just saying ‘no democratic revolution here’ they attacked Ukraine, and broke the postwar consensus. All out of fear of spread of democracy.

We don’t necessarily think democracy and hedonism are good things either. On the other hand, almost anything is better than ongoing Russian despotism and poverty.

Haven’t Russians harmed eastern Europe enough for one millennium?

US Congressmen block supply of MANPADS to Ukraine, call Azov Battalion ‘neo-Nazi’

US Congressmen block supply of MANPADS to Ukraine, call Azov Battalion ‘neo-Nazi’

http://www.unian.info/politics/1088591-us-congressmen-block-supply-of-manpads-to-ukraine-call-azov-battalion-neo-nazi.html

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The Azov regiment is “outraged” by statements in the USA House of Representatives

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/13/the-azov-regiment-is-outraged-by-statements-in-the-usa-house-of-representatives/

Far Right (and a few far left) European MPs who Voted against condemning Russia #nationalist

On 10 June 2015, the European Parliament adopted a resolution “on the state of EU-Russia relations”. It is a strong resolution that condemns the illegal annexation of Crimea and Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as reminding that Russia is “directly or indirectly, involved in a number of ‘frozen conflicts’ in its neighbourhood – in Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhasia and Nagorno Karabakh”.

http://anton-shekhovtsov.blogspot.com/2015/06/state-of-eu-russia-relations-brief.html

Russian military showing problems

They’re on losing ground. The economy is too thin a foundation for their military. And now they’ve lost the Ukrainian military industries they’ve depended on.

Two Russian Military Fighter Jets Crash In Under 3 Hours

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Is the ‘World’s Deadliest Tank’ Bankrupting Russia?

According to an analysis conducted by Forbes Magazine, Russia will spend an estimated 5.34 percent of its economic output on defense in 2015. This estimate is based on the assumption that the Russian economy will contract by 3 percent and a 15 percent hike in the real value of the military budget.

However, another estimate quoted in the Wall Street Journal based on Russian government data notes that country’s GDP may even decrease by 4.6 percent largely due to lower oil prices and Western sanctions. Consequently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev recently announced that this year’s 3.3 trillion rubles military budget will need to be adjusted and cut by five percent or 157 billion rubles.

Even worse, according to newly published budget data of the first three months of 2015, military expenditure exceeded 9 percent of quarterly GDP – almost twice the amount cited in Forbes Magazine. . . .

Russian spectators have said when Russia’s newest main battle tank, the T-14 Armata, abruptly grounded to a halt during a rehearsal for Moscow’s big May 9 Victory Day parade on Red Square (see: “Did the ‘World’s Deadliest Tank’ Just Break Down?”): “The Armata truly has unprecedented destructive power; a battalion can destroy the entire Russian budget!”

By 2020, Russia plans to produce 2,300 T-14 Armata models. Each tank costs about $ 8 million. The Russian military intends to replace 70 percent of its tank corps with the new tracked vehicle, replacing the older T-72 and T-90 main battle tanks.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/is-the-worlds-deadliest-tank-bankrupting-russia/

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Russia’s entire fleet of military bombers GROUNDED after plane engulfed in flames

It is thought that the drama was caused by an engine fire as the Tu-95 “Bear” plane took off in Russia’s Far East, causing it to overshoot the runway.

The bombers have been spotted over Britain several times during recent months in what has been seen as an increasing show of aggression by Vladimir Putin.

The Russian defence ministry said: “The accident occurred during a practice flight at the Ukrainka airfield in the Amur region at 17:00 Moscow time.

“The Tu-95 overran the runway during acceleration. There was no ammunition onboard. According to preliminary information, a fire in the engine was the cause behind the accident.”

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/583145/Russia-bomber-Bear-Tu95-Vladimir-Putin-aircraft-plane-Russian-conflict-military

(The U.S. has suffered at least four crashes of military aircraft in 2015.)

The Odesa Gambit

Mikheil Saakashvili has a varied resume: former President of Georgia, Justice Minister, parliamentarian, senior statesman, and Ukrainian presidential adviser. On May 30, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko added another line to his CV. He named Saakaskvili regional Governor of Odesa, a vulnerable and strategic port city on the Black Sea. Despite having served in Georgia through a number of high-stakes crises, this new position may turn out to be Saakashvili’s most challenging yet.

Even before the Euromaidan transmogrified from mass protests into street battles, Saakashvili was a regular attendee and frequent talking head in the international media. Having catapulted into the Georgian presidency through the 2003 Rose Revolution in Tbilisi, taking to the streets for the cause of national rebirth was a role he relished. In exile and with his golden parachute at Tufts University fizzling out, Ukraine was a welcome reprieve. . . .

It was not until February 2015 that Saakashvili was named the head of Poroshenko’s reform council. Within days, Saakashvili emerged as Kyiv’s lobbyist-in-chief in the quest to obtain Western defensive arms—an area in which Saakashvili had been notably unsuccessful during his nine-year tenure in Georgia. It seemed as though Saakashvili’s nebulous new position had been tailored to suit his reputed penchant for the spotlight, replete with lofty titles and a jet-setter’s itinerary. But soon after the debate in Washington over arming Ukraine had cooled, Saakashvili’s visibility noticeably lessened. He appeared again as a man without a place. Until Odesa.

Why Odesa? Multiple theories have been floated. The most popular idea is that Saakashvili comes to Odesa with the government’s mandate to forge an efficient governmental apparatus in a city that has long been a hotbed of corruption and organized crime. Poroshenko’s handpicked proconsul in Ukraine’s third-largest city, Odesa is also the second city to receive the shock therapy police reform that UNM ally and Georgian-turned-Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister Eka Zguladze is rolling out in Kyiv. Presumably, Saakashvili is expected to oversee its implementation in Odesa while also acting as a Kyiv-appointed counterweight to oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, who has increasingly clashed with Poroshenko’s government and already claimed Saakashvili will hand Odesa to Moscow.

Another, albeit less credible, theory is the idea that Saakashvili will be in a position to better monitor developments in Bessarabia and the Moldovan separatist region of Transnistria. Many analysts see Bessarabia, which is part of Odesa oblast, as another potential Russian separatist project in embryo. And in pro-Russia Transnistria, for which Odesa is regarded as an unofficial supply port, tension has been mounting over Ukraine’s decision to enforce a blockade against Russian forces stationed in the Moldovan breakaway riverlands.

It is also possible that Saakashvili was dispatched to Odesa simply to remove him from Kyiv, where he may be seen as a distraction and an irritant to relations with Tbilisi. And, of course, there are always the colorful tales of his reputed hard-partying lifestyle.

Whatever the rationale, the Odesa appointment is Saakashvili’s first opportunity since leaving Tbilisi to get back into the day-to-day business of governance. And, perhaps, this second time around may prove to be more illuminating. Saakashvili’s popularity in Georgia has plummeted based upon a widespread sense—including among some of his allies—that his style was too haphazard, too centralized, and too imperious. Odesa, however, is his chance to prove his state-building superman credentials are no fluke.

But Odesa will be no Mickey Mouse assignment. In fact, it may be the more challenging task. As President, Saakashvili enjoyed almost four years of vast reserves of political capital, and nearly eight years of near-total political dominance. It was in this context that comprehensive police reform, currently being emulated in Ukraine, was carried out. In Georgia, Saakashvili had the command of a tight cadre of lieutenants with control over all the organs of the state, the firm loyalty of the security forces, and considerable financial resources. In Odesa, Saakashvili is an outsider and lacks a natural political base.

The odds are stacked against Saakashvili. Odesa is a case study in the complexity of Ukrainian politics—and identity—in a region with a population of only a million less than Georgia. It is not hard to envision Odesa’s diverse interests clashing over the real controversy that comes with erasing and replacing police forces wholesale. What does Saakashvili do when disgruntled ex-officers—pink-slipped and replaced by well-paid, young university graduates—march down Odesa’s Deribasovskaya Street, bearing the scars of their fights with pro-Russia separatists and asking why they have been made redundant?

On the other hand, replicating Georgia’s excellent, but limited, reforms in Odesa will secure a key pillar of economic development. Saakashvili, no stranger to hyperbole, will be able to position Odesa as a legitimate contender for “capital of the Black Sea region.” Saakashvili, an outsider faced with entrenched local networks and lacking a natural constituency, is taking on a massive risk. If Odesa succumbs to division and conflict under his watch, the failure would more than the loss of a key region—it could break the back of the entire Ukrainian project. Success will cement Saakashvili’s claim as a state builder. Failure, however, could destroy Ukraine.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-odesa-gambit

Men in Lithuania Post Pictures of Themselves Crying to Protest Draft

Pathetic. Getting political power from weakness only works in the west. The closer you get to Russia the more foolish it is.

On May 11th, over 37,000 Lithuanian men aged between 19 and 26 woke up to find their names on Lithuania’s compulsory military service list. A conscription law was passed quickly and with little public debate, inciting outrage in the Lithuanian community. Many took to social media to express their outrage, but others attacked these men, calling them ‘cowards,’ ‘unmanly’ or ‘disgraceful.’
This negativity caught the attention of Beata Tiskevic-Hasanova, a TV host, and Neringa Rekasiute, a photographer and political science student. They gathered 14 men affected by this draft and photographed them crying in military uniform. This attacks gender expectations: men are supposed to be rational, emotionless and aggressive. Beata and Neringa believe that we, as a society, must not force an archaic stereotype onto men, and allow them to express their emotions.

Read more at http://emgn.com/entertainment/14-men-express-their-feelings-about-lithuanias-mandatory-army-draft-in-these-powerful-photos/#YFYkizZde6FGOZ4D.99

http://emgn.com/entertainment/14-men-express-their-feelings-about-lithuanias-mandatory-army-draft-in-these-powerful-photos/

Failed Russian Assault on Marinka

Failed assault, death, and injuries of Russian mercenaries: video shows response fire of Ukrainian soldiers. VIDEO

http://en.censor.net.ua/video_news/339196/failed_assault_death_and_injuries_of_russian_mercenaries_video_shows_response_fire_of_ukrainian_soldiers

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The Attack of Combined Russian-Separatist Forces on Marinka

The videos posted on YouTube by pro-Russian separatists and their own comments serve as the evidence of their attack on the positions of the Ukrainian forces in Marinka and as a proof of the violation of the Minsk agreements by the separatists.

In the video of the pro-Russian militants’ channel News Front (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi8_pIGnTmM&feature=youtu.be&t=404), starting at 6 min. 43 sec., a separatist fighter describes how they conducted a reconnaissance-in-force operation, entered Marinka, advanced through the town, reached the hospital, and swept the territory of the orphanage.

Also, there are videos showing the tanks of combined Russian-separatist forces with tactical markings on them (for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=iX-rV0Ew7Hs) that are shelling Marinka in violation of the ceasefire agreements. At the same time, separatists cynically claim that the Ukrainian forces are shooting at themselves.

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Rumor that the attack was an “improvisation” by DNR leader Zakharchenko after he displeased his Kremlin masters.

We, the IR group, have initially treated the version – that the disastrous offensive on Mar’inka, on 06.03.2015, had been undertaken without instructions from Moscow – with a great dose of skepticism. However, there is growing evidence that an “improvisation” by the “DNR” leadership did in fact take place.

In particular, it has been registered that a General with the Russian Armed Forces, call sign “Berkut” (with the last name of Sokolovskiy or Sokolov) has arrived in Donetsk on 06.02.2015 to take over the command of an “advisory” group of the GRU of the General Staff in Donetsk and to initiate the arrest of the “DNR” leadership for embezzlement of “aid” from Russia.

After a meeting with the Russian general, the head of the “DNR” Aleksandr Zakharchenko ordered an offensive in the vicinity of Mar’inka – obviously in an attempt to “rehabilitate” himself and to avoid responsibility before the Kremlin masters.

http://maidantranslations.com/2015/06/09/dmitry-tymchuk-another-update-on-marinka-offensive-6-03-6-09-freesavchenko/

Captured Ukrainian Soldiers in Maryinka likely Tortured

Kyiv, June 6, 2015. Russia-backed militants in eastern Ukraine have captured a soldier of the 28th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces Roman Mashchenko who made a series of announcements regarding the fighting near Maryinka on June 3-4, which reiterated messages of the Russian media. Mashchenko was talking “under extreme duress and threats of being tortured”.

http://uaposition.com/national-security-and-defense-council-russia-and-its-proxies-use-hostages-to-hide-their-defeat-in-maryinka/

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A young Ukrainian soldier taken captive by Kremlin-backed militants during the attack on Marinka asserted at a militant-organized press conference that the Ukrainian military were behind the attack and that in it they lost 200 men. The problem was not only that this diverged radically from reports issued by the OSCE monitors, but it was also quite different from what the young man was recorded as having said immediately after being taken prisoner.

One of the Russian spetsnaz officers captured in Ukraine stated recently that you can get any confession out of a person through torture, but that he was not giving any information that would need to be wrenched out of him.

That was not so in the case of Roman Mashchenko from the 28th infantry brigade who was taken prisoner by militants from the so-called ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ on June 3-4.

Those who initiated an attack on Marinka or heavy fighting in the area would be in direct breach of the Minsk Accords just days before a G7 summit expected to discuss the sanctions against Russia over its role in eastern Ukraine. They therefore had a direct interest in public ‘admission’ of the other side’s responsibility and supposed losses.

Enough to torture for.

Two ‘interviews’ were taken of the captured soldier, though it was almost certainly a bleep that both ended up posted on the Internet. The propaganda video, in the presence of Russian media, showed Roman Mashchenko with a wooden face stating that the Ukrainian side had lost 200 soldiers in the fighting and that the Ukrainian military had brought his 28th infantry brigade and five battalions, including Chechen and Georgian mercenaries to the town.

http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1433722135

Very important for understanding Russian propaganda:

As I’ve been saying. They try to destroy the very idea of truth.

Also, by working every day to spread Kremlin propaganda, the paid trolls have made it impossible for the normal Internet user to separate truth from fiction.

“The point is to spoil it, to create the atmosphere of hate, to make it so stinky that normal people won’t want to touch it,” Volkov said, when we met in the office of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation. “You have to remember the Internet population of Russia is just over 50 percent. The rest are yet to join, and when they join it’s very important what is their first impression.” The Internet still remains the one medium where the opposition can reliably get its message out. But their message is now surrounded by so much garbage from trolls that readers can become resistant before the message even gets to them.

www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/magazine/the-agency.html