Author Archives: RomanInUkraine

Collection of Surveys About Sentiment in E. Ukraine

http://uatoday.tv/society/over-1-in-2-ukrainians-back-nato-membership-400497.html
Dec 2014
– “Over 50 per cent of Ukrainians back joining the NATO military alliance. That’s according to polling from research group IFAK, who found that just 22 per cent oppose.”
– “That poll indicated an increase in support for NATO, up from 34 per cent in May, and from just 13 per cent in 2012.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/06/support-for-separatism-in-southern-and-eastern-ukraine-is-lower-than-you-think/
University of Oxford Study in Eastern and Southern Ukraine (published Feb, 2015):
– “fewer than 5 percent of respondents favored moves that would lead to the breakup of the country.”
– “18 percent supported a federal solution to accommodate ethnic differences, but only if it preserved a strong central government.”
– “6 percent and 4 percent of respondents believed that the rebel territories ought to be granted independence or join the Russian Federation.”
– “most respondents preferred the options of using greater military force or conceding more power to the occupied areas in preference to the two occupied territories splitting from Ukraine.”

Early February 2015. Evacuation of civilians from Debaltsev confirmed by OSCE: 600 choose the green corridor to Ukraine, 30 (5%) choose Donetsk, through the opposite green corridor

May 2014, Ukrainian Television
Not sure about the source of this survey, but:
Donetsk: 52.2% pro-Ukrainian, 27.5% pro-Russian
Luhansk: 51.9% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian
Kharkiv: 65.6% pro-Ukrainian
Dnipropetrovsk: 84.1% pro-Ukrainian

March 25-28 Survey by Donetsk-based Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis
Donetsk-based Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis (March 2014 – *before the war)
“46% of respondents believe the locals should take a “neutral, patient position” in case of a Russian invasion. Only one fifth said they would support a Ukrainian effort to resist the Russian forces, according to an advanced copy of the poll results obtained by TIME on Friday. Another fifth said they would welcome the Russian tanks. But perhaps most surprising was the data on how many locals were even paying attention. Nearly a quarter of them did not express “stable or high” interest in what was going on in their city.”

http://romaninukraine.com/survey-15-of-east-south-ukrainians-want-to-unite-w-russia-33-in-donetsk-luhansk/
Ukrainian newspaper Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (April, 2015)
More than 3,000 people in eight southern and eastern regions.
– “only 15% of respondents want to unite with Russia.”
– “in Donetsk and Luhansk the figure is less than a third.”
– “Some 77% oppose the armed separatists who have occupied public buildings in the region.”
– “while many southern and eastern Ukrainians may not support the separatists, neither do they support the government. Half of respondents consider the current, internationally recognised authorities to be illegitimate. In Donetsk and Luhansk, that figure rises to 70%.”

http://romaninukraine.com/iri-public-opinion-survey-residents-of-ukraine-march-14-26/
IRI (March 2014)
– Join the EU?
53% for, 28% against
east – 22% for, 55% against
– Russian Speakers under pressure?
85% no, 12% yes
east – 74% no, 17% yes
– Support Russian sending Army to protect Russian-Speakers?
81% no, 13% yes
east – 61% no, 24% yes
ethnic Russian – 43% no, 43% yes (Surprising!)
– Join NATO?
34% for, 44% against
east – 14% for, 67% against
– Crimea should be
71% – autonomous republic or oblast within Ukraine
8% – part of Russia

http://romaninukraine.com/new-iri-ukraine-poll-opposition-to-russian-military-intervention-strong-throughout-the-country-enthusiasm-for-election-is-high/
IRI Poll (April 2014)
This overwhelming majority opposed to Russian intervention extends to every region (97 percent, west; 94 percent, center; 69 percent, east; 75 percent, south), to all age groups (18-29 year olds, 85 percent; 30-49 year olds, 85 percent; 50 and older, 85 percent) and to men and women (men, 84 percent; women, 86 percent). In addition, 68 percent of Russian-speaking citizens oppose military intervention by Moscow.
* Support for invasion dropped from 13% to 9% since last month.
* 64% expect Russia to try to disrupt the elections.

http://romaninukraine.com/september-poll-of-donbas-sentiment-by-the-ilko-kucheriv-democratic-initiatives-foundation-and-the-kyiv-international-institute-of-sociology/
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Septemer 2014)
16% join Russia
26% independence
42% Stay with Ukraine but more autonomy

http://romaninukraine.com/russian-independent-poll-odesa-kharkiv-not-eager-to-join-russia/
Survey of Kharkiv and Odesa by independent Russian journalists. (October 2014)
87% – remain a part of Ukraine
3% – become a part of Russia
2% – become a part of “Novorossiya”

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2501761
Harvard University – Berkman Center for Internet & Society (September 2014)
Study of Social Media Sentiment

http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=236&page=1
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Feb 2014 — *before the war)
Integration with Russia into a single state is supported by 12% of respondents in Ukraine, and during recent years this number has decreased from 20% to 9%, but after Maidan – increased by 3%. The main part of supporters of this idea of unification with Russia is in the East (26%) and South (19%), while the smallest part is in the Center (5%) and West (1%) of Ukraine. By regions majority of integration with Russia in one state is in Crimea (41%), Donetsk district (33%), Lugansk district (24%), Odessa district (24%), Zaporizhzhya (17%) and Kharkiv (15%) districts, but even there support to the current status of relations with Russia – as two independent and friendly states – prevails.

http://uatoday.tv/society/new-poll-shows-only-16-of-donbas-residents-want-region-to-leave-ukraine-399984.html
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (Dec 2014)
Do Ukrainians want Donbass to remain a part of Ukraine?
– In the Donbas region 72.6% of those who took part in the study support the region staying part of Ukraine.
– Kherson with 93% of the polled in favour and
– Odesa where 88.4% of the surveyed support Donbas remaining part of the eastern European country.
The poll was conducted between the 4 and 19 of December in 179 villages and towns across Ukraine. The report states that 3,035 people took part in the survey.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/03/08/ukraine-poll-support-neutrality-split-on-war/24620853/
Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, in collaboration with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (March 2015)
US Military Aid: A slight 52% majority of Ukrainians support this move, with three-quarters of respondents supportive in the west, and three-fifths supportive in the north. In the east, 62% opposed U.S. military support, and the south is evenly divided.

The poll also found that Ukrainians were almost evenly divided (48% in favor and 42% against) on the use of force to regain territory lost to the separatists.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/25/what-people-in-southeast-ukraine-really-think-of-novorossiya/
“What is Novorossiya?”
Our comparative project funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation examines post-Maidan attitudes in Ukraine, as well as in Crimea now annexed to Russia, and in the Russian-supported de facto states of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. In December 2014, we organized simultaneous public opinion surveys in these regions and surveyed in 6 of the 8 oblasts of southeast Ukraine (hereafter SE6). We judged it impossible to do reliable survey work in war afflicted Donetsk and Luhansk, instead contracting with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to administer a randomized face-to-face survey to 2003 persons in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv. We asked a series of questions about Novorossiya.
what-is-novorossia

Hungarian far-right Jobbick MEP charged with espionage w Russians

Russian spy Jobbik MEP?
The Prosecutor General’s Office for espionage against the institutions of the European Union initiated a suspected Brüsszelnél immunity of Jobbik MEP Bela Kovacs on the suspension – was informed of the Hungarian Nation. The page you know, against the politician is strongly committed towards Moscow in early April, the Constitutional Protection Office filed a report.

Bela Kovacs activity has already attracted the attention of civilian counterintelligence, enter the Hungarian nation. The same representative also meets regularly with Russian diplomats conspiratorial manner, and a monthly visit to the Russian capital.

http://index.hu/belfold/2014/05/15/orosz_kem_a_jobbik_ep-kepviseloje/

Kolomoisky outraged at a Jew being killed in Mariupol

So, apparently, a phone call was intercepted betweenn Ihor Kolomoisky and Oleg Tsarev (pro-Russian PM from Regions Party who leads Donbass secession project now).

The video has been removed from Youtube as “deceptive”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvixppJqOvE

Transcript:

Kolom – Do you know that one jew was killed in Mariupol? From Dnipropetrovsk community

Tsarev – So, what have happened?

Kolom – Jew was murdered! From Dnipropetrovsk. I’m in sinagogue now.

Tsarev – And what I can do? Kolom – It doesn’t matter. For your head people give big money. 1 mln $. They will search for you everyewhere.

Tsarev – Ihor, I want to tell you one thing… There is a poison in Africa…

Kolom – Listen, I don’t fucking care what is in Africa! Stop telling me these manses (jewish slang). I’m telling you that in sinangogue before Shabat thare was a ceremony and people prayed fr soul of Shlemkevich – a jew who was killed in Mariupol. And they had said – it’s Tsarev responsible for this. And we’ll search for all who are close to you. We’ll be hanging them on squares of cities. So, please tell them to run f*cking far from here. And tell Markov do not arrive in Ukraine. In any case.

Tsarev – Ihor, don’t call…

Kolom – What?

Tsarev – Stop calling me…

Kolom – Well, bye

Steel Workers Patrol E. Ukraine’s streets, restore calm

SLAVA DONBAS!

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — In what could represent a decisive turning point in the Ukrainian conflict and a setback for Russia, thousands of steelworkers fanned out Thursday over the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and routing the pro-Kremlin militants who seized control several weeks ago.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk, though they had not yet become the dominant force there that they are in Mariupol, the region’s second largest city and the site just last week of bloody confrontations between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants.

The workers are employees of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man and a recent convert to the side of Ukrainian unity, who on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting the separatist cause of the self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic but endorsing greater local autonomy. His decision to throw his weight fully behind the interim government in Kiev could inflict a body blow to the separatists, already reeling from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s withdrawal of full-throated support last week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/europe/ukraine-workers-take-to-streets-to-calm-Mariupol.html

1. Imagine what they could do if they were able to buy/sell guns.

2. I want them to have a referendum, but it’s impossible while Russian intelligence agents and special forces are running around murdering and intimidating Ukrainian activists.

Visa, MasterCard Better Off Quitting Russia due to new regulation, Morgan Stanley Says

New legislation placing foreign payment service providers under the thumb of Russian regulators is so damaging to Visa and MasterCard that the two U.S. companies might be better off abandoning the Russian market, according to research by investment bank Morgan Stanley.

Compliance with the new law will cost Visa and MasterCard at least $2.9 billion — some five times more than the two companies’ combined annual revenue in Russia, Morgan Stanley estimated in a confidential May 6 report titled “The Russian Bear: Impacts on V and MA,” obtained by The Moscow Times on Thursday.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/500169.html

Russian Analyst Calls For Dividing Up Romania Following Partition of Ukraine

Moscow = the garden of the beasts

Russian commentators have talked openly about dividing up Ukraine and Moldova in order to support ethnic Russian communities there and weaken these two countries, but now one Moscow writer has taken such ideas further and called for the dividing up of Romania in support of Russian national interests in the Balkans.

In a commentary on APN.ru, Dmitry Rodionov says that the annexation of Crimea and the crisis in Ukraine have refocused attention on the possibilities of joining Transdniestria, the breakaway region in Moldova, to the Russian Federation, something he says that must be “decide in parallel with ‘the Ukrainian question.’”

http://www.interpretermag.com/russian-analyst-calls-for-dividing-up-romania-following-partition-of-ukraine/

Karelians Seek International Recognition of Russia’s Occupation of Their Republic

Staunton, May 14 – In another case of blow-back from Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, activists in Karelia are seeking international recognition of the occupation of their republic and the holding of a referendum on independence, a step they say will end the genocide the Russian authorities have inflicted on the region and restore historical justice.

On their own site, “Stop the Occupation of Karelia,” and in a petition on the site of the US White House, the Karelian activists appeal to the international community to “help return the territory of the Ukhta Democratic Republic into the legal field and to recognize the fact of its occupation”.

In their appeal and petition, the activists also call for an end to “the genocide of the indigenous population of Karelia which has been organized by the authorities of Russia” via the imposition of “unbearable conditions” on the places of “the historic settlement of Karels, Finns, Wepsy and Saami peoples.”

http://www.interpretermag.com/karelians-seek-international-recognition-of-russias-occupation-of-their-republic/